Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has become a focal point of global attention due to his increasingly complex relationship with Israel. As the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, MBS’s actions carry significant weight, both within the kingdom and on the international stage. His efforts to foster closer ties with Israel, a country historically seen as an adversary by many in the Arab world, have sparked both support and opposition.
The potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. For decades, Saudi Arabia maintained a policy of non-recognition of Israel, aligning with the broader Arab stance in support of Palestinian statehood. However, recent diplomatic overtures suggest a potential realignment, with MBS playing a central role in this transformation.
The Crown Prince’s strategy is driven by several factors. Economically, Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its economy away from oil dependence, and forging ties with Israel could open up new avenues for technological and defense cooperation. Additionally, the shifting dynamics in the region, including the growing influence of Iran, have prompted a reassessment of traditional alliances.
Risks for Muhammad Bin Salman: Internal and External Threats in Relations with Israel
However, this diplomatic shift comes with considerable risks. Within Saudi Arabia, there are conservative factions and influential clerics who view any rapprochement with Israel as a betrayal of Islamic and Arab solidarity. These internal dissenters could pose a threat to MBS’s authority, potentially leading to instability or even attempts on his life.
Moreover, MBS’s overtures toward Israel have not gone unnoticed by external actors. Extremist groups and rival states may see his actions as an opportunity to undermine his leadership, viewing the Crown Prince as a target due to his willingness to break with traditional Arab norms.
The Crown Prince’s challenges are further compounded by the broader context of his leadership. MBS has pursued an aggressive agenda of reforms under his Vision 2030 plan, aiming to modernize Saudi Arabia’s economy and society.
While these reforms have garnered international praise, they have also sparked significant opposition within the kingdom, particularly among those who feel that the changes are too rapid or contrary to Islamic values.
The assassination risk is not merely a theoretical concern. In recent years, there have been credible reports of plots against MBS, with some attributed to disgruntled elements within the Saudi security apparatus and others linked to external forces. These threats underscore the precarious position that the Crown Prince occupies as he navigates a path that challenges both internal and external expectations.
Despite these risks, MBS appears committed to pursuing his vision for Saudi Arabia. His bold moves, including the potential normalization of ties with Israel, reflect a leader willing to take significant risks to achieve his goals. The outcome of these efforts remains uncertain, but what is clear is that MBS’s actions will continue to shape the future of the Middle East for years to come.
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